Expectations and health are two primary considerations for Carlitos, according to our panelists.

As we make our way toward the 2024 season—which begins Friday, December 29 with the United Cup—our writers and editors tackle the most important questions of the new year. Third question, as Carlitos prepares for another year on tour: What would be considered a successful season for Carlos Alcaraz?

Alcaraz has won 41 of 50 major matches to begin his career.

ED MCGROGAN: Alcaraz has leveled up in each of the past four years—so much that just maintaining his lofty status should be considered a success. Statistically speaking, that means remaining in the Top 2 (where he’s been ranked since winning the 2022 US Open) and winning a major (which he’s done in each of the past two years). Is Alcaraz capable of finishing 2024 at No. 1? Of course; he ended 2022 on top. Is it hard to envision him lifting mutliple Grand Slam trophies? Not at all; he reached the final four at Roland Garros, Wimbledon and the US Open last season.

But as significant an achievement, perhaps, is simply remaining healthy and competitive throughout the entire year. The youngster missed the last Australian Open due to injury, and of the 16 finals he’s reached in his nascent career (12-4 record), just two have come after Wimbledon. No one would have guessed that Alcaraz’s Wimbledon triumph would be his last time in the winner’s circle, but here we are.

The 20-year-old’s physical gifts are obvious—but if anything, he’s been more reliable mentally. If Carlitos can stay healthy in 2024, the statistical asks should be a given, considering his immense talent.

Putting himself in position to win the crown jewel of the European clay season for the first time would be a success in itself. The same could be said for how Alcaraz finishes out a season.

DAVID KANE: Thanks to his innate talent and obvious physical gifts, the bar for Carlos Alcaraz will always be artificially—and perhaps unfairly—high given his youth and relative inexperience. How is a 20-year-old with two major titles supposed to rival a GOAT with 24? Still, with time—and his ability to be a quick study—on his side, it would be reasonable to expect another wildly successful 2024 from a man who has yet to peak on clay, the surface on which he first broke through in 2022.

Halfway to a Career Grand Slam, Alcaraz is set to contest his first Australian Open since becoming a world No. 1. It’s a testament both to how quickly he has become one of the best players on tour, and a tendency toward injuries that has slowed down what otherwise looked to be a clear coronation in 2023.

While not as cataclysmic as the series of injuries that sidelined him from last fall until February, the Spaniard nonetheless looked run down at the ATP Finals, struggling at the start of round robin action and losing a decisive semifinal to the relentlessly fit Novak Djokovic.

Alcaraz and coach Juan Carlos Ferrero appear yet to find the prevention strategy that will be essential for him to match the Big 3’s longevity, but the youngster has proven plenty capable of bouncing back from setbacks—see his turnaround from a cramp-addled Roland Garros loss to a Wimbledon victory six weeks later. At this stage, success is simply to keep pace in the still-open GOAT race, which he can do by winning at least one major title in 2024.

MATT FITZGERALD: With everything he’s accomplished the past two seasons, Alcaraz has set an extremely high bar for himself. It goes without saying that the Spaniard’s years are now defined by his performances on the biggest stages.

In each of the past two years, Alcaraz has walked away with a major title. If he does the same in 2024, it’ll once again serve as an unquestionable marker of a successful season. Among the Slams to leave a mark, Roland Garros just might be his top priority. Half of Alcaraz’s 12 titles have come on red dirt, pulling off the Barcelona-Madrid double in consecutive years. But he’s yet to play for the La Coupe des Mousquetaires at Roland Garros, notably cramping in the second half of his semifinal defeat to Djokovic this year. Putting himself in position to win the crown jewel of the European clay season for the first time would be a success in itself.

The same could be said for how Alcaraz finishes out a season. After beginning 2023 by winning 58 of 64 matches, he closed at 7-6—and his 2023 ended with a decisive defeat at the hands of Djokovic. Bringing that high bar to the fourth quarter of the calendar is a growth area for this tremendous athlete, one who has proven to be a remarkably quick study (Cc: the 2023 grass-court swing).